2025 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - H2H Categories
10 Team / H2H 5x5 categories with a middle-round pick
Hello Everyone,
Its time for the best part of baseball season.. mock drafts. This is by far the best way to prepare for fantasy baseball season and there are multiple free apps to use for practice. Since the beginning of the month I think I have run over 50 drafts, attempting to try out different builds in each. For this draft I used the free Draft Wizard app.
Starting off our first draft post with the most basic of leagues with the 5th pick. The format is 5x5 head-to-head categories, 10-teams, 23 roster spots, 230 players taken off the board. All positions are: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.
This was one of my favorite team builds I have gotten, even though the app gave me a B+ rating. This team’s strengths were listed as R, AVG, SAVES and weaknesses listed as HR & RBI. Keep in mind this is a simulator and not a real mock draft with other people, so some players may go way later or earlier than their ADP.
Lets get into it.
Pick 1.05 (5th Overall) - Gunnar Henderson | ADP 6
2024 Stats: 118 R | 37 HR | 92 RBI | 21 SB | .281 AVG
My favorite pick of this draft of this draft is taking Gunnar. I would take him any where from the 4th pick and on. He is a 5 category player, in a great lineup and is one of the most electric players in baseball to watch. His statcast is almost all dark red, except he is lacking in K% and Whiff%.
I think Gunnar comes down to 34 HR and 20 SB this season, but I am still expecting over 200 R + RBI and a .280 average. You cannot go wrong with having the Orioles’ best player on your team.
Pick 2.06 (16th Overall) - Vlad Guerrero Jr. | ADP 14
2024 Stats: 98 R | 30 HR | 103 RBI | 2 SB | .323 AVG
Time to add some more power while knocking out first base early. Vlad has been one of the more up-and-down players the past couple of seasons, and the beginning of 2024 did not look promising. But in the second half, Vlad had better stats in 130 less at bats to finish as a top player in baseball.
Pre All-Star Break (374 at bats): 48 R | 14 HR | 57 RBI | .289 AVG
Post All-Star Break (242 at bats): 50 R | 16 HR | 46 RBI | .376 AVG
Vlad’s statcast metrics backup his insane second half. he ranked 100th percentile in xBA, 98th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, and Avg Exit Velo. he ranked above the 90th percentile in Barrel% (91st), Hard Hit% (97th), Bat Speed (95th), and K% (93rd). Oh, and he also walked at a 10.3% clip. You may be missing out on stolen bases with this pick, but you’re getting a pure power hitter with a high average, and a top player entering his contract year.
Pick 3.05 (25th Overall) - Ketel Marte | ADP 28
2024 Stats: 93 R | 35 HR | 95 RBI | 7 SB | .294 AVG
Sticking with the theme of getting power early and getting arguably the worst position this year out of the way - second base. Marte led all 2nd basemen in home runs (by far) and RBI, while batting .294 and chipping in 7 steals. The Diamondbacks led the majors in runs scored last year and Marte was a big part of it hitting behind Corbin Carroll. Marte ranks in the 96th percentile or better for all major hard hit/batting stats, except for barrels (only 84th percentile). He hit the second hardest ball of his career with a exit velo of 117 MPH, falling .1 short. Marte has had over 500 plate appearances in the past two seasons, showing when he stays on the field he will put up 1st and 2nd round production.
Pick 4.06 (36th Overall) - Garrett Crochet | ADP 36
2024 Stats: 146 IP | 3.58 ERA | 1.07 WHIP | 209 K | 6 W
I don’t usually like taking a pitcher this early, but my other hitter options were Seager, Harris and Schwarber. I felt I had a good amount of power already and there are other players later in the draft with similar profiles to Harris I could wait on.
I like Crochet’s profile a lot and thrilled to have him as my SP1 in round 4. The White Sox actually did the right thing last season by limiting his pitches and innings, setting up this season for even more success. Ignore his 2024 wins, you can double those, maybe even triple them for 2025 with the Red Sox.
Crochet is a hard throwing lefty with 7.1 feet of extension (93rd percentile). He mainly throws a 97.1 MPH fastball and 91.5 MPH cutter. He also has a sweeper, changeup and sinker he will throw 17% of the time. The fastball has a .198 batting average against with a .295 SLG, no one is hitting this thing. His xERA was 2.85, almost a whole run below his solid 3.58 ERA. his 35.1 K% is 98th percentile in the league. If he goes 180 IP he could get 230+ strikeouts with a low 3s ERA.
Pick 5.05 (45th Overall) - Dylan Cease | ADP 47
2024 Stats: 189 IP | 3.47 ERA | 1.07 WHIP | 224 K | 14 W
Doubling down on “taking pitchers this early definitely was not my plan”. the hitters just did not seem worth it and it was too early to take the first closer off the board. Cease is not my favorite and there were safer pitchers on the board (Kirby, King), but Cease is just electric and brings in a whole lot of strikeouts.
Cease is tied for second in Stuff+ for all qualified pitchers with a 121. His slider is filthy with a 19 Run Value, .159 batting average against, 44.7 Whiff% and 39.1 K%. His FIP and SIERA support his success with Padres as well, showing a 3.10 and 3.46 respectively. Cease is a solid SP2 with good ratios, high K’s and wins.
Pick 6.06 (56th Overall) - CJ Abrams | ADP 48
2024 Stats: 69 R | 20 HR | 65 RBI | 31 SB | .246 AVG
Before the shortstop cliff I have Abrams and Oneil Cruz, so I am happy to get Abrams 8 picks after his ADP. He had a breakout season last year and Steamers is projecting a increase in all counting stats:
Steamers 2025 Projection: 87 R | 21 HR | 66 RBI | 38 SB | .255 AVG
The Nationals lineup is even more exciting this year with Dylan Crews, James Wood and then more solid veteran guys like Bell and Lowe hitting in the middle of the order. Hot take.. I think Abrams goes 20 HR + 40 SB and leads this team to a wildcard spot.
Pick 7.05 (65th Overall) - Devin Williams | ADP 65
2024 Stats: 21.2 IP | 1.25 ERA | .97 WHIP | 38 K | 14 SAVES
this is the point in the draft I should’ve taken my first starting pitcher, but with my SP1 & 2 already locked down, I needed a top relief pitcher. As a Yankee fan, I will take Williams at his ADP anytime if it fits the draft build.
He missed most of last season with a back stress fracture and did not return until the end of July. Williams looked healthy when he returned, posting a 48.8 Whiff% on his signature changeup and a 43.2 K% overall. With the downgrade in ballpark to Yankee stadium, I think his ERA moves closer to his xERA around 2.11, but he has 30-35+ save potential if healthy.
Pick 8.06 (76th Overall) - Lawerence Butler | ADP 77
2024 Stats: 74 R | 23 HR | 68 RBI | 18 SB | .254 AVG
arguably this years biggest breakout candidate.. Butler has a extremely high ceiling and a extremely low floor, making him a pretty risky pick in the 8th round. He can be this years Jarren Duran or he could be in AAA by May. Butler was a fantasy hero last season to whoever got him off of the wire, with his biggest moments being 2 different 3-home run games against Philly and Cincinnati.
I want Butler on all my teams this season. He lowered is strikeout percentage while increasing his walk percentage, increased his average exit velocity & barrel %, reached a max EV of 113.1, and hit all over the field. Did I mention he is playing in AAA ball park for half the season? I’ll take the risk here.
Pick 9.05 (85th Overall) - Adley Rutschman | ADP 65
2024 Stats: 68 R | 19 HR | 79 RBI | 1 SB | .250 AVG
Again, I do not recommend taking pitching or a catcher so early in the draft, but getting Adley discounted this year feels like a steal. There was some concern that Rutschman was dealing a hand injury that was sustained at the end of July, so lets look at his season splits:
Pre All-Star Break (90 games): 47 R | 16 HR | 59 RBI | .275/.339/.441 Slash Line
Post All-Star Break (58 games): 21 R | 3 HR | 20 RBI | .207/.282/.303 Slash Line
Adley is too good to play that poorly in the second half without something going on. He is going to play almost every day and has potential to get back to his C1 spot, but is going 4 rounds later than Contreras.
Pick 10.06 (96th Overall) - Brenton Doyle | ADP 80
2024 Stats: 82 R | 23 HR | 72 RBI | 30 SB | .258 AVG
From undrafted to the top 100, 2024 breakout player Brenton Doyle does it all. I will take all of the 5-category players I can get (his .245 projected batting average will not hurt you). Doyle set career highs in almost all of his batted ball stats, while increasing zone contact%, and lowering his chase rate + whiff %. His biggest improvement was lowering his K% from 35% to 25% and upping his walk% to 7.6%. Doyle is a elite defender so he will be in the lineup everyday, even if he starts cold or goes into a slump.
Pick 11.05 (105th Overall) - Jordan Westburg | ADP 97
Pick 12.06 (116th Overall) - Riley Greene | ADP 110
two players going later than they should by at least a round.. this was a good chance to catch up on power while maintaining batting average. Both play in solid lineups and should bat in the top 3rd of the lineup (although Westburg is projected to bat 8th vs. RHP). both dealt with injuries last season, I think Westburg can get 25 HR while Greene gets 30.
(Percentiles - Westburg | Greene)
xwOBA - 88th | 88th
HARD HIT% - 77th | 83rd
BARREL% - 80th | 90th
Pick 13.05 (125th Overall) - Hunter Greene | ADP 93
I would not expect Greene to drop this far, but if he does he has SP1 upside. There is some injury risk here but if he is anywhere close to last season’s 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with 169K you will get your value here or near his ADP.
Greene is a fly ball pitcher that allows mostly weak contact (92nd percentile for hard hit rate), which plays well for him in Great American Ball Park. He is mainly a two-pitch pitcher, throwing a 97.6 MPH fastball and a 86.7 MPH slider. His fastball ranks as one of the best in majors with a 20 run value and a 123 Stuff+.
Pick 14.06 (136th Overall) - Brandon Nimmo | ADP 168
one of the most undervalued players in every draft, it always seems like Nimmo outperforms his ADP. Take a look at his last 3 seasons:
2022: 102 R | 16 HR | 64 RBI | 3 SB | .274 AVG
2023: 89 R | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 3 SB | .274 AVG
2024: 88 R| 23 HR | 90 RBI | 15 SB | .224 AVG
3-Year Average: 93 R | 21 HR | 74 RBI | 7 SB | .257 AVG
Why is Nimmo going so late in drafts with these numbers? And this year he is projected to bat 4th behind Lindor, Soto, and Vientos. He has a strong opportunity here to replicate last season’s numbers, but I expect his batting average to get back up closer to his career line of .261 and steals to drop towards 10.
Pick 15.05 (145th Overall) - Ryan Walker | ADP 111
Walker had a solid season in San Fran last year, stealing the closer role away from Camilo Doval. There is some skepticism if Walker will continue to hold the role this season, but as long as he performs again I do not see the Giants taking it away from him.
Walker is a 2-pitch pitcher throwing out of a 17 degree arm angel, giving him a beautiful horizontal movement profile. He posted a 1.91 ERA + .85 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 80 innings last season. His 2.52 FIP shows he is due for some regression, but it will be hard for Doval to get his job back from such an elite pitcher.
Ryan Walker 2-pitch movement profile
Pick 16.06 (156th Overall) - Kodai Senga | ADP 147
Senga was going around pick 75 last year, and rightfully so, but there is a big discount this year. Senga missed the first half of the season with a shoulder capsule strain, then the day he returned he strained his left calf. Senga has SP1 upside if he is healthy and is worth the risk in the 16th round.
His “Ghost Fork” lived up to the hype in his 2023 debut season. Senga throw it 23.8% of the time, posting a .110 BAA, .147 SLG, 59.5 Whiff% and 58.5 K%.
Pick 17.05 (165th Overall) - Ben Joyce | ADP 195
Hot Take: Ben Joyce breaks Chapman’s record for fastest pitch this season.
For anyone who does not know, Joyce is the new closer for the Angels, and the flamethrower averages 102.1 MPH on his four-seam and pairs it with a 97 MPH sinker. Joyce is electric but still needs some work, is 1.15 WHIP and 9.9% walk rate is higher than what you want out of your closer. If he wants to keep his role he will have to get his control more fine-tuned.
Pick 18.06 (176th Overall) - Josh Lowe | ADP 167
Pick 19.05 (185th Overall) - Cristopher Sanchez | ADP 187
Pick 20.06 (196th Overall) - Josh Jung | ADP 216
My 18th, 19th and 20th round picks were to fill in some needs. Lowe for stolen bases (and potentially a 5 category player), Sanchez as my SP5 for wins and ratios, and Jung as solid bench option for power. Lowe and Jung were injured most of last season, but if both can stay healthy they are players you can feel confident in as starters.
Pick 21.05 (205th Overall) - Jeff Hoffman | ADP 281
Pick 22.06 (216th Overall) - Trevor Megill | ADP 234
Drafts will have caught up on these two before the season starts, both will most likely be middle of the pack relief pitchers taken around the 9th and 10th rounds. Megill showed his worth covering for Devin Williams last year and Hoffman was in a closer committee posting a 2.17 ERA, .97 WHIP with a 33.6 K%. If both stay healthy they have the stuff to post 30+ saves with solid ratios.
Pick 23.05 (225th Overall) - Michael Toglia | ADP 187
One of my top sleeper targets, Toglia has 30+ home run power and can get you 10+ steals. His batting average will be low, but his .244 xBA shows he was unlucky last year only hitting .218. He posted a ridiculous .496 xwOBACON, good for top 2% of the MLB, but underperformed in other expected stats:
.456 SLG | .503 xSLG
.329 wOBA | .358 xwOBA
Better days are ahead for Toglia as he looks to have a career year for the Rockies.
Overall Thoughts:
Overall, I thought this was a solid draft. Even taking two starting pitchers and a reliever in the first 7 rounds, I feel the hitters are still balanced with power and speed. There are some players with injury risk here (Williams, Greene, Lowe, Senga, even Crochet) and others with a low floor (Butler, Doyle, Toglia), but where they were drafted I feel it was good value. Draft Wizard gave this team a B+ and projected them to be 7th in hitting and 4th in pitching. I would grade this team a A and put the hitting as 2nd or 3rd and pitching as 3rd or 4th.
Complete Lineup:
C - Adley Rutschman
1B - Vlad Guerrero Jr.
2B - Ketel Marte
3B - Jordan Westburg
SS - Gunnar Henderson
OF - Lawerence Butler
OF - Brenton Doyle
OF - Riley Greene
UTIL - CJ Abrams
UTIL - Brandon Nimmo
SP - Garrett Crochet
SP - Dylan Cease
RP - Devin Williams
RP - Ryan Walker
P - Hunter Greene
P- Kodai Senga
P - Ben Joyce
P - Christopher Sanchez
B - Josh Lowe
B - Josh Jung
B - Jeff Hoffman
B - Trevor Megill
B - Michael Toglia